THE FORWARD AGE
Back in May, I told readers the S&P 500 would crack 6400 and then 7300. Today, the index sits at 6450. I also called rates dropping toward 3% by the end of the year — and the market is already expecting 3.5%. In other words, the trajectory is clear.
So why do the so-called “professionals” keep panicking over every weak jobs report, every inflation print, and every trade war headline? Simple: they’re backward-looking. The market is forward-looking. That’s the whole difference. And in 2025, that difference has never been more important.
We’ve entered The Forward Age.
The Market vs. the Professionals:
The market sees what’s coming. Professionals only see what just happened. Professionals care about client management, not wealth creation. They live in quarterly returns, not long-term compounding. They obsess over “doing something” to justify fees, so they react to every headline — tariffs, payroll data, CPI prints. They are short-term caretakers, not long-term investors.
The market doesn’t play that game. It looks forward. It knows tariffs are leverage, not a permanent regime. It knows capital is flowing into America at unprecedented levels. It knows AI is structurally raising productivity and potential output in ways no policymaker can stop.
Tariffs, AI, & Manufacturing:
The media calls it a trade war. The market calls it a negotiation.
Tariffs aren’t permanent barriers; they’re tools to reset terms in America’s favour. They’ve already caused resetting terms with China, diversified supply chains, and redirected investment back into the U.S. economy. Strategically, tariffs target critical goods and sectors. They’re designed to rebuild a manufacturing base, not destroy it. And that’s the real key: for now for America, tariffs are not anti-trade, they’re pro-production. They’re laying the groundwork for the next industrial era.
America is transitioning into a tech-first economy, but tech cannot exist without production. Manufacturing is the backbone of this transformation. The AI race isn’t just about algorithms. It’s about automation, robotics, energy, logistics, and industrial scale. Innovation is nothing without execution. And execution requires factories, supply chains, and domestic production capacity.
Tariffs + capital inflows are ensuring America isn’t going into this productivity boom with just a lead in ideas, but also with strength in making things. That’s the winning combination: tech + manufacturing fused. Hundreds of billions in new investment are already secured under President Trump. This isn’t hypothetical — it’s happening in real time.
Layer AI productivity on top of that, and you don’t just get GDP growth; you get a shift in potential output. The ceiling is higher now. That’s why the market doesn’t flinch at trade war noise. It knows the economy’s long-term capacity has been massively reset upward.
Policy can delay, but it cannot stop this force. The market is focused on the potential riches of AI, the professionals are focused on short-term noise.
The FED’s Reality Check:
The Fed is still holding rates, claiming inflation risk. But the data doesn’t support it. Inflation has cooled, and tariff drag is already showing up in weaker jobs reports. Revenue is going up but interest expense is too high. That alone should justify cuts.
My forecast stands: 3% by year-end.
The truth is, the Fed isn’t as independent as it pretends to be. The White House wants lower rates — to save on interest costs, to accelerate the economy, to offset tariff drag. And it will get them. Through market pressure, political pressure, and personnel changes. The next Fed chair will align with Trump’s agenda. The market already knows this.
Conclusion:
The rally is righteous.
America is leading the AI race. It’s fusing innovation with manufacturing. It’s attracting capital at scale. And it has an administration that is competitive.
The market sees it. Professionals don’t.
That’s why the S&P has already crossed 6400 (as I predicted in early May) and why 7300 is still in sight. That’s why rates will come down. That’s why optimism isn’t a gamble — it’s the rational bet.
We’re in The Forward Age. I’d never thought I’d say this, but stay with the market. Ignore the noise. Forward-looking beats the backward-looking.
Aug 17, 2025
Ilke Asilkan