THE GOLDEN AGE BEGINS
There’s a lot happening right now — tariffs, the pope, China, Israel, Trump, you name it. Personally and professionally, it’s been chaotic- but the market is up 16.5% since I last told people to buy on April 6th and my personal portfolio is up 32% (low diversification helps). Living in Toronto, the sun is very precious. It’s going to be a sunny 17 degrees today — perfect for a round of golf. A little fresh air, a little backswing, and a good chance to reset. And it reminds me of what Warren Buffett always said: “Never bet against America.”
Over the long term, America has the best system. Understand this: even a president can’t really disrupt the country’s future. The unstoppable forces behind America are built by its collective intelligence and interests — and once they align on something, they don't miss. Right now, the collective mind of America has leaned towards:
“We’ve fed China too much, and they won’t even listen to us! And why not reclaim our leadership in the world?”
It doesn’t matter who’s in charge — Democrat or Republican — this shift is happening. Trump just lit the fire earlier, which is why I call this period Agenda 2025.
The tariff war? It’ll give more to America than it’ll take:
Bring back jobs
Cut off overexposure to China
Diversify our production base (aka find new countries to soft-colonize)
Push innovation not just in tech, but in manufacturing and trades
Stop inflation without killing the economy (because tariffs paused and recession risks dropped)
Revenue that can be used for many things
Attract domestic investment
Lowered interest rates that will help the United States with the interest expense
The bottom line:
"...HANG TIGHT, WE CAN’T LOSE!"
— Donald Trump
THE FED & TRADE DEALS:
The Fed is going to hold its ground. And no — Donald Trump cannot fire Jerome Powell. America might feel a little more authoritarian under him, but it will never go full strongman — that’s not how the system works. In fact, the Fed must resist political pressure to preserve its institutional strength. On that front, I think Powell’s doing the right thing. But let’s be honest — they mistimed the interest rates. Rates are still sitting at 4.5%, while inflation has already cooled to 2.4%. The spread is too wide. In a high-uncertainty environment like this, the Fed will eventually have to cut aggressively.
My call: Rates will be down to 3% by the end of the year.
And that’s when the real engine turns on. Lower rates, new deals, lower taxes, a potential peace deal in the Ukraine-Russia war, newly negotiated trade agreements, massive domestic investment inflow, and regulatory rollbacks — that’s the cocktail that sets up optimism and growth. Sure, we might get a soft patch. A transitory recession or a dip in GDP in Q2 and Q3 from declining government spending (like we saw in Q1) isn’t out of the question. Or maybe just a lingering flu from the year’s uncertainty into the next. But by the end, optimism will arrive and deliver, and we’re gonna go for a massive home run. I say the S&P 500 will first crack 6400 and then 7300 by next year.
America’s strength is its ability to adapt fast. New trade lanes. Fresh capital flow. Rate tailwinds.
We’re setting up for a run.
CONCLUSION:
As I said earlier: Buy America. We’re setting up for a real run — not a sugar high, but a structural shift. This restructuring was overdue. Renegotiate trade deals, address the deficit, bring back key manufacturing so the U.S. isn’t dependent on its economic colonies, and apply high-tech innovation to real-world industries. Cut waste to tackle the debt, show decisive American leadership, and secure strategic assets — Ukraine, the Panama Canal, and more. Stop the manipulation and cheating in global trade, attract high-quality immigrants, and bring in massive foreign investment.
This is the new American momentum — and it’s compounding in real time.
Ignore the headlines, they won’t talk about the underlying targeted agenda, but only about the facade. For example, they will talk about the potential negative consequences of global tariffs, but not the upperhand that they give in negotiation, which is the main reason for their implementation. Focus on FUNDAMENTALS. Watch what actually gets DONE. Follow long-term strategy, not short-term panic. If you keep your eye on that playbook, the next time the market dips, you won’t flinch — you’ll see it for what it is: opportunity for investment.
Ilke Asilkan
May 13, 2025